On January 24, Spain’s Le Monde website published an article entitled “Russia and the United States are ready to start a new round of game in the world”, written by Javier CORAS. The article said that the US and Russian governments will reach a consensus on their relations. The excerpts are as follows
Biden’s government is more willing or interested to cooperate with the former Soviet Union, and Putin is ready for this. The two governments will reach a consensus on their relationship, even though both sides believe the other is declining.
Biden visited the Soviet Union more than 30 years ago as a senator to discuss the signing of the intermediate range nuclear weapons treaty with Andre gromico, chairman of the presidium of the Soviet Union’s Supreme Soviet. At the end of last century, Russia became a capitalist presidential Republic. However, although the two governments are no longer antagonistic, they are not familiar friends.
Since Bill Clinton, every U.S. president has tried to reestablish relations with Russia after taking office in the White House, but none of them has worked. This time, the United States does not need to propose a new plan for Russia, because for Russia, Biden is first and foremost the vice president of Barack Obama and the old “governor” of Ukraine.
For many years, Washington has been teaching Moscow to reform its political system. During Trump’s four years in power, the American system was shaken and the society was divided. People doubted whether the current political framework was effective.
Russia and the United States are long-term rivals. They confronted each other during the cold war, and both have global ambitions. Despite Putin’s rule over a country that has changed its name, flag and system, Moscow continues to view the world in the same way: for centuries, all invasions have come from the west, and if you want to control your borders, you have to expand and control the surrounding countries.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said Moscow believes the United States does not want to see Russia as an equal partner. Nevertheless, Peskov still believes that despite the differences, Putin still maintains a constructive attitude towards the West. Under Biden, US foreign policy will be more traditional – less stimulus to Moscow in principle, and more predictable.
Biden will be the key to a new START treaty between the United States and Russia, just like the agreement he helped to reach as vice president in 2010, which will expire next month, so it must be renewed. The new START treaty is the only nuclear agreement between the United States and Russia, which limits the number of nuclear warheads held by both sides to 1500. The negotiations reached a deadlock during the trump administration.
Us Russian relations are no longer the only key to global affairs. For Washington, China’s influence is crucial, while Russia sees itself as a pole in a new multipolar world.
Russia, taking advantage of the US withdrawal from the Middle East, has become a basic force in the region, linked to various actors such as Hezbollah, Israel and Egypt (for which nuclear power plants are being built).
Almost anything Biden wants to do will lead to a chilling relationship between the United States and its allies in the Middle East. If he returns to negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran, he will offend Israel and Saudi Arabia. If he revisits his critical discourse on the human rights situation (which trump never mentions), the relationship between the United States and the regimes in the region will become disharmonious. Moscow, which rarely preaches about human rights, may take the opportunity to fish in troubled waters. But some countries, such as Egypt, get money from the United States that Russia can’t compete with. Israel, which has so far not explained why it works with Moscow in Syria, may receive a warning call from Washington this year.
Biden’s government is bound to expand U.S. aid to Ukraine. Although President Vladimir Zelensky is obviously in a weak position, Biden’s appointment will encourage Kiev to take a tougher line in the negotiations in Normandy and in front of Russia.
As for Belarus, the Kremlin’s main goal is to prevent it from becoming a new Ukraine – a less democratic country that has shifted to the West. Biden knows that his options in Minsk are limited, but if Moscow decides to launch a replacement for Alexander Lukashenko, competition will be more open than in the past and the United States will be happy to support it.