Xinhua news agency, Washington, January 26 (reporter Xu yuangaopan) – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an update to the world economic outlook report on January 26. While raising the global economic growth forecast, it pointed out that there is “extraordinary” uncertainty in the prospects of global economic recovery. The IMF predicts that China will be the only major economy that is expected to achieve positive growth for three consecutive years from 2020, and will play a prominent role as a global economic stabilizer.
This is the city of London on April 14, 2020. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Han Yan)
Global economic recovery remains uncertain
The IMF predicts that the global economy will shrink by 3.5% in 2020, 0.9 percentage point lower than that in October last year, and the global economy will grow by 5.5% this year, 0.3 percentage point higher than that in the previous forecast.
The main reason for the IMF’s increased confidence in the global economic recovery is that the development and promotion of the new vaccine is faster than expected. At the same time, some economies accelerated their recovery in the second half of last year, and some of them strengthened their policy support, making the global economy stand at a higher starting point of recovery.
The report predicts that the economic growth of developed economies will reach 4.3% this year, 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous forecast. Among them, the US economy grew by 5.1%, the euro area by 4.2% and Japan by 3.1%. Over the same period, economic growth in emerging markets and developing economies will reach 6.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast. In addition, the IMF expects global trade to grow 8.1% this year and 6.3% in 2022.
At the same time, the IMF pointed out that “extraordinary” uncertainties still exist in global economic growth. The good news about vaccines will certainly boost the confidence of enterprises and families, promote consumption and investment, and further promote global economic growth. However, the spread of mutated new coronavirus, the slowdown of vaccine popularization or the premature withdrawal of support policies may also lead to lower than expected global economic growth.
Gita & middot; gopinat, IMF chief economist, likens the global recovery process to a race against the new coronavirus. The outcome of the competition will largely depend on vaccine promotion and effective policy support.
The report also pointed out that the recovery of various economies is expected to vary due to the severity of the epidemic, the impact on the domestic economy and the effectiveness of policy support.
On January 21, the international freight train of Wuyishan and Almaty in Fujian Province was ready to leave. On the same day, the launching ceremony of Fujian Wuyishan & mdash; Almaty international freight train was held at Wuyishan land port. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Huaying);
The role of China’s economic stabilizer is highlighted
The IMF said in its report that China’s economy continues to be a major bright spot in the global economy and is expected to achieve positive growth for three consecutive years from 2020. It will be the only major economy in the world to achieve this achievement.
The IMF pointed out that China’s economy has recovered strongly due to such factors as the remarkable achievements in epidemic prevention and control, timely increase of public investment, and liquidity support provided by the central bank. China’s economic growth will reach 2.3% in 2020, 8.1% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022.
Gopinat pointed out at a news conference on the same day that the fundamental reason why China has become the first major economy to recover to the pre epidemic level is that China has successfully controlled the epidemic and implemented effective fiscal and monetary policies to ensure the rapid recovery of economic activities.
Malha Nabal, head of world economy at the IMF’s research department, also said that the policies issued by the Chinese government have effectively supported the economic recovery. In the future, China’s private sector economic activity is expected to gradually accelerate recovery.
Petya & middot; Kova & middot; Brooks, deputy director of IMF research department, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua news agency that China has been one of the engines of global economic growth for a long time and plays an important role in the current process of global economic recovery. She praised China for playing a key role in the global supply chain and advocating multilateral cooperation in areas such as vaccines.
On January 20, Chilean health minister Paris (left) and science and technology minister guff attended a press conference held at the presidential palace in Santiago. Chile’s Institute of Public Health announced on the 20th that it will grant an emergency license to the new crown vaccine developed by China’s Kexing company. (Xinhua News Agency)
Call for multilateral cooperation to stabilize recovery prospects
The IMF report reiterated that strengthening multilateral cooperation is conducive to stabilizing the prospects of global economic recovery and building a resilient and fair post epidemic economy.
IMF pointed out that novel coronavirus pneumonia should be hand in hand to fight against the outbreak, including increasing WHO led &ldquo, new crown pneumonia vaccine implementation plan &rdquo, and ensuring that the vaccine is quickly and extensively available worldwide to solve serious inequalities in the process of vaccine acquisition.
Gopinat believes that the synchronous promotion of public investment by economies with greater fiscal space will have a better economic boosting effect than those by economies alone. Countries should also enhance cross-border spillover effects through global trade links, so as to promote the common recovery of the global economy.
The IMF also said that international support should be further strengthened in providing preferential loans and debt relief to developing countries in order to create a more inclusive and equitable economic environment. In addition, all economies should work closely to tackle climate change and repair the defects of the rule-based multilateral trading system.